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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.